Friday, February 22, 2008

Change of market sentiment???

The last half hour of the trading day proved to be the shorts worst nighmare. Feeling giddy from tearing the longs a new one all week, they were all set to end the week on a high note.....until Charlie Gasparino from CNBC burst their bubble.

Hopefully Ambac should get some much needed capital infusion this weekend and be able to keep its triple-A rating. Ofcourse, the masters of the universe(I-bankers, PE) who will be providing the much needed capital to Ambac will have throughly scanned all of ABK's assets, balances, debts, etc. I want to say the market is gonna view this very favorably next week. Hey, if its good enough for the masters of the universe, its good enough for me...atleast for the next week.

I did a little bit of buying today. Bought some FWLT calls early morning. The Contruction and Engineering/Oil Drillers/Commodity sector has been looking really good last week. I believe $100 oil will really spur some big construction projects. 75% of FWLT's business is international, so the growth is already in place. I also bought some Goldman Sachs(GS) calls into the closing rally. The momentum in the financuials should be strong next week, provided the deal completes without problems this weekend.

Covered half of my Monsanto(MON) puts today into the rally. The Agriculture(AG) sector has been acting like the Tech sector in late 1990's. Its where the momentum players have been having their day in the sun. Shorting the AG sector looked like a great idea early last week after the market's bounce back from the Jan 22 lows, specially since that bounce actually just felt like a short covering rally. But now, if we get a substantial rally off the Ambac news specially with soooo much money just sitting on the sidelines and people itching to get back into some of their favorite stocks after they have been beaten down mercilessley this year(AAPL, GOOG, MA, GS, POT, MON), being short MON would feel like standing in front of the freight train!

Current positions:
Long GS, FWLT, ALJ, SNE, MSFT
Short MON, FSLR, RIMM, RTH

Looking forward to seeing how the market acts next week.

No comments: