Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Fed's Crisis Management Tactics

So i'm sure you all have heard the BSC news. $2/share!!! Talk about a firesale! JPM makes out like a knight in shining armor for saving BSC at the same time snatching up the deal of the decade. Make that 9 decades (thats how old BSC is). As this deal was being put together over the weekend, the fed steps in with a discount rate cut too. Anyone else notice how the Fed acts at crucial market times only. We were about to take out the Jan 22 '08 lows on Monday which would have triggered another MASSIVE round of selling (DOW 10,500 anyone?) but ofcourse the fed steps in sunday night with a cut followed by another 75 basis on Tuesday. Does anyone still think Mr. Bernanke isnt a puppet for Mr. Wall Street?? I dont blame him at all though...with so much of the entire country's wealth and economy tied up in the financial markets (think everyone's 401K), Ben's gotta do what Ben's gotta do..hand out free money.

I still believe we are headed lower. Theres only so much that band-aid and smoke and mirrors can fix. At some point you do need to go in for surgery if the pain is too bad...and i strongly believe it is.

As i have emphasized before, we are still in a bear market where you will get sharp rallies. This is my first real bear market that i am trading in and learning along the way. The rallies in a bear market seem to be much more vicious and fast than bull market rallies..go figure. But thats the way it is, and you have to learn to deal with it.

I got stopped out of half my short positions last week in the 400 point rally. We had another 400 point rally yesterday but i didnt close out my leftover shorts yet. I still think we go lower but things are looking a little rosy for a while right now. I might add more shorts once i see the buyin pressure ease a bit.

I have also mentioned that i doubt anyone besides day trades are making good money in this market. You just cant hold onto a position longer than 1-2 days here. If anyone reading this is making profits, please let me know. I would like to learn a thing or two from you. This is the same reason why people consider bear markets bad, because of the vicisous rallies. Otherwise it would be as simple as shorting everything under the sun and sitting on it for 6 months.

I did make 1 trade yesterday. I shorted BIDU. In such a strong market like yesterday and with the NASDAQ rallying 4.5%, BIDU acted very very poorly. If a 400 Point rally cant get any buyers into BIDU, i dont know what can. This tells me that when the DOW does drop hard one day (and it will soon), BIDU will get crushed. Ofcourse, if i do see some strength in BIDU over the next few days, i'll happily close out my short position for a small loss.

Current positions: Short: RIMM (puts), BIDU(puts), RTH(puts)
Long: ALJ

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