Thursday, April 17, 2008

Times are a changing....

So MER reports a bad quarter today and stock ends up $2.50 for the day....same thing happened with UBS and LEH couple of weeks ago. I think the market is starting to price in all negetives here and is starting to look ahead. After the bell today, GOOG blew out the numbers and the stock is trading up $72 as i write. This tells me that a lot of shorts were caught leaning the wrong way and were blown out of the water today. Tech is starting to gain institutional favor again and i will definately need to close out my RIMM short tommorow.

I did some buying of calls today in TSO(Tesero)- a refiner. With peak driving season looming around the corner, the refiners are going to have to start upping the crack spread pricing. The $115 oil will translate into over $4 in gas by Memorial day. With cracks spreads near their lows right now ($9) the only way for refiners to start printing money in their peak demand season is by increasing the crack spread.

Also bought calls for DRYS(DryShips) - with the Dow Jones Transportation Index (DJT) close to highs, the railroad stocks (CSX, NSC) at all time highs, i think the dry bulk carriers are going to start ramping up. DRYS is a leader in the bulk goods shipping business and hence my buying calls in DRYS.

MA looks like it could take off its high at $232. If i start seeing heaving institutional buying of MA, i'm closing out my short position and going long right away.

Only big looming "IF" right now if Citigroup's quaterly report tomorrow morning. If C doesnt say anything too bad, i really believe we will be out of the woods for the shorter term. We also need to take out the overhead resistance at 1390 in the S&P(which we are very close to right now). GOOG's earnings should definately help the S&P tomorrow. Lets see what the market tells you tomm.

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