Start..Stop..Start..Stop...

This market is trading in a ridiculously tight range. Whats incredible is that we are trading in a ~40 point range in the S&P's but the intraday volatility is unbelievable. The violent swings intraday will give any seasoned trader heartburn. Until we break out of this range in either direction i will not be pressing my equity bets.

Commodities have been on a tear the last 2 weeks specially copper and oil. The reason i decided to trade futures this time around is because i wanted a pure commodity play instead of a derivative, diluted stock/ETF commodity play. So far the position has worked out well. 

I still believe the commodity rally will continue through the year. Though i intend to build a large core position in commodities, i will still occasionally trade around my core position. Nobody lost money taking a profit!

Long: FAZ, DRYS, Oil, Nat Gas and copper 

Short: Bidu 

Stalling or Basing?

I sold out of all my CME and POT calls this afternoon. Even though the market continues to rally and i have have made some money trading long in the past week, i just cannot imagine this market holding up here for much longer. Every single economic data that comes out usually starts with "The worst ever.." and end with "...since data collection began in 1950's". 

Yet every single morning the market just shrugs it off and rallies some more. After market close today, BofA announced another 825 million share offering priced at market at $10. I would like to see how this market trades tomorrow. If the market can digest this new secondary offer and if BofA holds above $10 tomorrow we might be setting up for another leg up in the markets and i guess i'll probably jump in and drink the Kool-Aid again!

Long: FAZ,DRYS, OIL,Nat gas and Copper through futures

Short: BIDU

Back to the Basics...

So after a long hiatus from this blog, most of which was filled with flipping stocks faster than you can say "Filled", i decided to get back to the basics of buying and holding again.

The market volatility has essentially collapsed from where it used to be late last year and this is encouraging more and more people to dip their toes back in the water. Although i do think we have run too far too fast off the March bottom, i will be looking to add to my positions on pullbacks this time around. 

My first trading idea for the year is ironically the exact opposite of my best trade idea last year...Buy Commodities! Yes i know it sounds crazy what with people still losing jobs everyday and BRIC economies  falling off a cliff but i think we have overshot on the downside with the selloff.

Natural gas has collapsed from $14 to $3. Oil drops from $150 to $35. All of these commodities  are pricing in a global depression but i think after the dust settles we realise that things might not be as bad as we are pricing it and we are "ONLY" in a global recession albeit a very deep one.

This "downgrade" from Defcon1 - Global depression to Defcon2 - Deep global recession will help lift some of the commodity prices to more resonable levels. I'm currently long natural gas and oil futures.

Long: Nat gas, Copper, Oil, POT, CME, DRYS

Short: BIDU, Financials(FAZ),